Let the campaigning begin

The year 2013 has been eventful in so many ways, however the biggest event of all, if indeed it can be referred to as such, was the sad passing of Madiba, Nelson Mandela. His death is a great loss to the people of South Africa and to the world at large.

On 27 April 1994 many South Africans went to the polls and voted in the first democratic elections, and I remember that day so vividly. On 27 April 2014, South Africa will celebrate 20 years of freedom and democracy, the democracy which Nelson Mandela and many others sacrificed and dedicated their entire lives to making it possible. It is even sadder therefore that Madiba will not be with us to celebrate the 20^th anniversary of a free and democratic South Africa. As we prepare to enter 2014, Madiba’s memory will live on, from generation to generation and perhaps to eternity.

Nevertheless, life in 2014 has to go without the beloved Madiba. The year ahead  looks set to be an “interesting” year, especially in South Africa, where the country will stage the General Elections which are held every five years. What will make the 2014 elections interesting is the possibility of new parties entering the fold. At the last elections in 2009, there was much interest generated by the entrance of a newly formed party, the Congress of the People (COPE). At the time, COPE was led by former ANC stalwart, Mosiuoa Lekota and former trade unionist, Sam Shilowa. COPE contested the 2009 elections with the aim of triumphing over the ruling ANC.

After votes were counted by the Independent ElectoralCommission (IEC), the ANC had garnered  65.9% of the votes, the Democratic Alliance was a distant second place with 16.6% of the ballots won and COPE was an even further third having collected 7.66% of the votes. The 7.66% was a very small part of the total votes casted, but looking at this in real numbers, it means that COPE received 1.37 million of the votes cast, not bad at all for a party which was established less than six months before the 2009 elections.

With the 2014 elections looming, we may have yet another new party that will generate much interest much like COPE did in 2009, this is in the form of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by former ANC Youth League President , Julius Malema. Should the EFF contest the 2014 General Elections, the question is: will they fair better than COPE and stage a realistic challenge against the ANC and the official opposition party in the National Assembly, the Democratic Alliance? My opinion is that the EFF has a strong chance to draw more votes (in percentage terms) in 2014 than COPE did in 2009 however, I’m not convinced that the EFF would unseat neither the DA as the official opposition party in the National Assembly nor the ANC, as the ruling party. To really understand how voters will cast their ballots, we need to first see the election manifesto's of each of the parties contesting the elections and for this we will have to wait until the election date is announced and this will then kick-off the process of proper campaigning, including the launch of the manifesto's b the parties. Let the campaigning begin!

MAY HIS SOUL REST IN PEACE!

The world is richer for having had Madiba.

Could Ethiopia Finally be on the Rise?

When I think of Ethiopia, immediately two of the greatest names to come out of that country come to mind, namely the remarkable long-distance athlete, Haile Gebrselassie and of course the former Emperor of Ethiopia and legendary founder of the Rastafari Movement, Haile Selassie. 

But Ethiopia is a country with a very colourful history which includes a brief spell (1936-41) as a colony of Italy. It is this history which byandlarge appears to have held the country and its people back. As a result, Ethiopia is today one of the poorest country's in the world with a GDP per capita of around US$1,200 (CIA World Fact Book). Compare that with South Africa's GDP per capita of US$11,600 or that of the Sychelles at US$25,600.

Interestingly, the Ethiopia Telecommunications Corporation (ETC), a state-owned entity, has a monopoly as this relates to ISP, Fixed and Mobile Telephony services. The country has one of the lowest Internet penetrations in Africa at 1,1% in a country with a population of just over 84 million. Information and Communication Technology(ICT) has a yet to have an impact on the people of Ethiopia. The impact of ICT, as has happened in many other countries in Africa and around the world, will only be felt when there is liberalization of the ICT industry in that country.

Despite this bleak picture, the IMF estimates that Ethiopia's GDP will grow at an annual rate of 8,1% between now and the year 2015. This growth is likely to come from changes in the structure of the ICT industry, among other things.

Therefore, if Ethiopia were a share traded on a stock exchange, I would be buying this share and holding on to it in the medium to long term, simply because I see a lot of growth coming from this country, given the very low base on which the country is sitting currently.   

MADIBA

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MADIBA

The son of Africa, father of the whole wide world.

R.I.P Iron Lady

Like her or not, may Dame Thatchers's sole rest in peace!

Different Perspective on Billionaires Listing

Forbes magazine is a magazine best know for its publication, since 1987, of the list and rankings of the world's billionaires. Back in 1987, Forbes could identify only 150 individuals who could be classified as US$ Billionaires mostly from the USA. On the first list published by Forbes, the top four on that list were individuals from Japan. Now, 26 years later, that list has ballooned to 1,426 Billionaires from all corners of the globe.

Recently Forbes published an article showing the geographic spread, by country of origin of these 1,426 Billionaires. What is interesting according to the article is that since the first list was published up to the latest list published for the year 2012, the USA has had the highest representation as a percentage of the total list. For many years, Europe occupied the second spot however, more recently the Asia-Pacific region (led mainly by China) has leap-frogged Europe. Russia and Africa have also seen a rise in the numer of Billionaires appearing on the Forbes list. 

Link between Billionaires and University

A rather more interesting list however, is one published by CNBC which ranks the top ten universities with the most Alumni on the Forbes Billionaires list. Harvard University has always been known as the best institution among the Ivy League universities and now it turns out that Harvard has the most number of Billionaires appearing on the Forbes list. All in all, 52 or 3,6% of the world's billionaires have studied at Harvard University. Admittedly, not all of these billionaires went on to graduate, with a few notable ones dropping out to focus on what ended up making them wealthy, Facebook Founder, Mark Zuckerberg is one such individual. The University of Pennsylvania, comes a distant second, having 28 of its former students who feature in the Forbes Billionaires list. Just as the USA has the highest number of Billionaires in the global list,  all but one of the top ten universities with the highest number of billionaires as former students, are in the USA.  It is clear that the USA is the land of opportunity, whichever way you cut it.

Elements of a successful education system

It is a matter of history and track record that successful nations have turned out to be prolific innovators and education has been the foundation of that continuing innovation for them. Innovative countries tend to have high levels of literacy with many of its citizens holding at least an under-graduate tertiary qualification. This being the case, the question that has to be asked is: is South Africa preparing itself to be a nation of innovators?

In my view, a good education system has at its core the following key elements (in no order of importance) which must work in concert to ensure good to excellent outcomes:

a) a well thought-out curriculum

b) a committed government

c) involved parents/guardians

d) committed and inspiring teachers

e) engaged leaners

Each one of these five elements is as important as the other and a weakness in one or more could, at best, weaken the education system and at worst, cause a total collapse of the entire education system. Learners who experience schooling where all the five elements work in concert must surely have a better chance of growing up to be successful adults.  

Does South Africa's education system therefore have all the above five elements working in harmony and fulfilling their end of the bargain? The answer I suspect depends on the province, the city, the town and type of school i.e. private or public, one choses to scrutinize. Based on these variables, it is difficult to say whether or not South Africa's education system is prepared to produce leading innovators of tomorrow. What is clear, is that in order for the education system to have a chance of delivering excellent outcomes, the role players in the above mix must be satisfied that they are each fulfilling their end of the bargain. At the point at which each of the role players could declare that they are each fulfilling their end of the bargain, then from that point onwards, South Africa would be on a path to success and on a path to being a nation capable of large scale innovation.