30 December, 2010

China's Stroke of Genius!

Over the past few days we've been reading about South Africa (SA) being invited to be part of the BRIC economic formation. The invitation into the BRIC family was been made by the formation's biggest and most influential partner, China. By all accounts, the invitation is due more to South Africa's influence on the African continent than the country's economic strength.

China's is one of South Africa's biggest trading partners and South Africa is Africa's largest economy. The size of SA's economy, no doubt gives the country great influence over decisions taken by the African Union (AU) and  the regional organization, the SADC. It is now emerging that one of the reasons China may have invited SA to be part of  BRIC (the acronym may be changed to BRICS should SA accept this invitation), is to leverage South Africa's influence on the African continent. It is an open secret that China is looking for opportunities to invest its accumulated cash stockpiles and Africa is as great an investment candidate for China as any other region in the world. What better way to understand the goings on in Africa than to bring South Africa to the BRIC table to share on the African agenda. China's invitation of SA to be part of BRIC can only be described as a stroke of genius. Previously I wrote about how China's may one day becomes Africa's new colonizer, and one day we may look back at China's invitation of SA to be part of BRIC as the event which accelerated this neo-colonization attempt.  

Now the question is whether or not South Africa should accept this invitation. In my view, President Jacob Zuma should accept the invitiation to sit at this auspicious table, if only for selfish reasons for the benefit the economy of South Africa and perhaps those of other countries on the African continent.

19 December, 2010

My Top Stories of 2010

The year 2010 was filled with many events and news, both good and bad. Below is my list of the most memorable news which shaped the headlines in 2010.

Political
  1. President Jacob Zuma re-shuffled his Cabinet, in a move that seemed to increase his power-base within the ruling party, the ANC. The Cabinet re-shuffle was followed by changes in leadership in some of the Provinces. 

Economy/Business
  1. Arcillor Mittal SA, gives a staggering +R9 bil stake to a group of investors in a controversial BEE deal which involves President Zuma's son
  2. The mighty Wal-Mart made moves to acquire MassMart but after much investor and union revolt, Wal-Mart settled to secure a controlling 51% stake in MassMart. The deal is yet to be inked.

Technological
  1. South Africa welcomed its fourth mobile network provider: 8.ta
  2. The continued rise and influence of Facebook. Some time in 2010, the social network notched up its 500-millions users and more users keep signing up daily.

Social
  1. South Africa successfully hosted the 2010 FIFA World Cup
  2. The three biggest disasters of 2010 that captured the imagination of the world must surely be: a) the earthquake which struck the small island-nation of Haiti b) the volcanic eruption in Iceland which brought European airlines to a stand-still and c) the damaging BP crude-oil accident off the Gulf of Mexico

What were your top stories? Happy 2011!

14 December, 2010

Imagine uncapped-data for Africa!!

Telkom Tower and UNISA in Pretoria
I'm currently reading a book, "The Facebook Effect" by David Kirkpatrick and one of the many enlightening things he describes in the book is how Facebook and other technology companies like it, really started to see exponential growth in terms of users and usage after the telecommunications networks in the US introduced the “all-you-can-eat” data sales concept became. The concept is borrowed from the restaurant industry, where customers would order a buffet, meaning for a set price, the diner could eat as much as they could during that specific visit to the restaurant (of course no doggy-bags allowed).


Lessons from the US about data usage
In the data space, this translated to the network operators and their distribution partners, offering bandwidth at a set fee, usually per month. This offering is also often referred to as uncapped data. During the particular month, the user could surf, upload and download as much data as they wished. The advantage of the uncapped data concept  for the customers is that they could now extend their surfing activities beyond essential content to more recreational content. The uncapped data method of selling bandwidth has the effect of reducing the cost of using the Internet and offers the consumer the freedom to roam wider and do more on the Internet. The advantages for the network operators is that because the user pays in advance, the network could guarantee future revenues. Indeed we can not overestimate the role of broadband has also played in the growth of Internet usage in the developed countries. A combination of both uncapped data and enhanced bandwidth has therefore been a potent recipe for the Facebook phenomenon and other similar Internet offerings.   
  
Uncapped Data for Africa
Imagine therefore the potential that could be unlocked if governments around the world, but specifically in Africa, encouraged telecommunications networks to offer some form of uncapped data pricing mechanism. This could unleash all sorts of creative and commercial opportunities in Africa for individuals and businesses alike. In my view, the uncapped data proposition could truly help to improve the economic well-being of the people of Africa. With uncapped data, the more than 500 million mobile subscribers across Africa, would begin to use their devices for more than just voice and SMS. The world of the Internet and online commerce would become a reality for all. Illiteracy however would remain lurking as the main  barrier and threat towards growth and penetration of Internet usage.

Not all rosy
To be sure, the uncapped data proposition has its downsides for both the consumer and the network operators. The networks would have to invest in more robust infrastructure in order to cope with the possible surge in usage. Happily, Africa is entering the world of broadband, with many of the underseas cables slowly coming into stream. The consumer may begin to dabble in unsavoury content, such as pornography etc. However, the impact of the upside offered by uncapped data, would far outweigh any downsides.

Let’s have “uncapped data for Africa, shall we!!”

09 December, 2010

Part2: Pres Zuma setting a foundation for his legacy


During a state visit to Cuba on Dec 7th, President Zuma, accompanied by some members of his cabinet, announced a credit line package to Cuba, which package includes the cancellation of a R1,1 billion debt which Cuba owes to South Africa. Since the announcement, many have been arguing about whether or not South African can afford to write off such a big amount in debt when the country is faced with such high unemployment (23.5%) and poverty. Those who make this argument miss the point and the point is that South Africa is yet to make proper amends to those countries which helped advance the liberation struggle course during the rime of apartheid.

The foundations of Zuma's legacy are becoming clearer 
The point therefore, is that the credit line package along with the debt right-off, are a gesture by President Zuma on behalf of the ANC and the people of South Africa, aimed at making it right with countries such as Cuba for their contribution to the liberation course of the ANC and its alliance partners. As stated in an earlier article, it is my view that what is beginning to emerge is that President Zuma seems to be on a path towards building a legacy which will tell a story of his Presidency as being the one which initiated the process of paying back to those countries which for decades invested heavily in the sustainability of the ANC during the decades of apartheid. Many would argue that you can never put a price on the role such countries as Cuba played in keeping the ANC and its allied partners alive during the critical struggle years. "Paying" back old debts is therefore going to be the hallmark of President Zuma's foreign relations agenda. South Africa must e expect more such gestures from President Zuma in the future, aimed at other countries. 

07 December, 2010

What legacy will Pres. Zuma leave behind?


Many Presidents come into office with a clear agenda of the key things they would like to achieve during their time in office. Presidents always want to leave behind a legacy and I have no doubt that President Zuma has his own agenda. If he does have an agenda, it is certainly not overtly communicated indeed I often find myself wondering  what legacy President Zuma is really building for himself.  


Follow Zuma's travels for clues
In recent times, President Zuma has been spending a lot of time outside the country, either on official state visits or simply attending critical multilateral gatherings such as the recent African Union-EU Summit in Tripoli, Libya. I have come to observe an emerging pattern with regards to the choice of countries which the President has been visiting of late. Recently he traveled to Angola, Zambia, China, Libya and now of course, Cuba. 

All these countries have one special thing in common and that is, they were somehow directly or indirectly  involved in helping to keep the ANC movement "alive" during those tough decades of he apartheid era. I have therefore come a private conclusion that perhaps President Zuma is somehow seeking to establish stronger diplomatic relations between South Africa and these countries.  In my opinion, Zuma may be setting about to position himself (consciously or inadvertently), as the President who can be spoken of as having started the process of making diplomatic amends between South Africa and those countries. The list of countries which helped keep the ANC "alive" is endless and in some instances, debatable. 

With this in mind, I expect President Zuma to make a more concerted effort towards improving diplomatic ties with more of those countries, among them are Swaziland, Lesotho, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and even Russia. 

28 November, 2010

Reconciling the NGP with the NPC


This past week saw the release of the New Growth Path (NGP) by Minister in the Department of Economic Development, Ibrahim Patel. The NGP is government's new chapter in a book which aims to outline a vision for South Africa’s growth and development. The jury is still out as to whether or not the growth and development strategies outlined in the NGP document are realistic and achievable. What concerns me is the role of the National Planning Commission(NPC) in the drafting of the NGP document.

NGP document could be waste of resources 

To be sure, the NPC as a body that is Chaired by Trevor Manuel, Minister in the Presidency, is yet to gain full life as a working organization. The Secretariat, which will carryout the day-to-day work of the NPC, is yet to be appointed which means that realistically the NPC would have had very little influence on the formulation of the NGP plan. It is my understanding that the work of the NPC, among others, is to define a long-term plan of how to make South Africa’s economy more vibrant and productive. The implication therefore, is that every long-term plan by any government department would be informed by the long-term plan which, i must emphasize, is yet to be outlined by the NPC. Any government department coming out with a long-term plan in the absence of a plan by the NPC, stands the risk of having to rework any new plans or at worst, having to completely discard such plans for not being aligned to the NPC plan, a plan which is yet to be defined.

Minister Manuel is mum on the NGP

I'm not suggesting that government departments should sit idle while waiting for Minister Manuel to finalize the long-term plan for the country. Without a doubt, a  lot of resources would have been channeled towards the development of the NGP and I wonder if Minister Patel should not have waited just a little while longer before releasing the NGP document which is obviously not informed by the NPC vision. A vision which, I must repeat, is yet to be defined. So far, Minister Manuel has not commented at all on the NGP plan proposed by Minister Patel and this is exactly what raises my concern, the possible lack of proper co-ordination in government. 

At some point in the future, the thoughts outlined in the NGP would have to be reconciled with the long-term vision of the NPC, which vision is no-doubt going to be the “Bible” on which every sphere of government would have to base their plans.

22 November, 2010

Is China Africa's next colonizer?


By all accounts, come the end of 2010, The People's Republic China (China) will be the second biggest economy in the world after the United States of America, surpassing Japan. China's GDP growth over the past decade has been nothing short of explosive, as a result of the growth of the manufacturing sector in that country. A lot has also been written about China's cheap labour practices which have played a major role in making country one of the world's leading exporters, earning valuable foreign currency. 

China's Foreign Reserves Swell Up
According to an article in the Wall Street Journal (14 Oct, 2010), China's foreign currency reserves now stand at a record US$ 2,6 trillion, the largest of any country. This stash of cash gives China the upper-hand in any deal the country negotiates. China is already one of Africa's biggest trade partners, with already strong ties among many sub-Saharan countries. In the last two weeks alone China announced separate trade agreements with Angola and Botswana.   

China could be the next colonizer
In the case of Botswana, the trade agreement which China signed with the resource-rich Southern African country, included a US$ 6 million development agreement. This figure is a small pittance by China's standards but a sizable contribution to Botswana's relatively small economy. Imagine that each trade agreement China signs with each African country includes such a developmental aspect, this could be China's way of gaining influence over governments of those Africa countries. In my opinion, African countries have to be careful not to sign away control of their governments to China. It may not seem like it now, but if China is left un-checked, in no time we may well have a situation where the famous red flag is flown in many the African countries, with Mandarin Chinese as one of the the official languages of these same countries. There must be political will among African leaders to guard against China becoming Africa's next colonizer.

If I sound alarmist, that's the intention!

15 November, 2010

Pres. Zuma makes a calculated move



Managing government is not only about managing the process of service delivery, as President Zuma has demonstrated, it is also about managing the costs related to the delivery of these services. In any organization, people costs, specifically salaries are a big component of operational costs, and this more so in government.

President Zuma's decision to reduce the salary increase by 2 percentage points from the 7% recommended by the remuneration commission showed political will on his part. The will to reduce the burden on the tax payer. My concern however is that the people affected by this increase are not the ordinary state and government employees, it is senior members of the executive and judiciary who are unlikely to show any disapproval, even if they do not agree with the proposed increase. In this regard, the move has been a calculated one from the President's side.

It is unlikely that the ordinary state employees would accept a 5% increase, therefore it will be interesting to see how President Zuma would deal with the matter of increases for general state employees when the matter eventually reaches the bargaining council in the next round of negotiations. This perhaps is where his political will, is likely to be put to a real test.

08 November, 2010

Is Pres. Obama losing touch?



Cast your mind back to the US Presidential lection campaign of 2008 when,  then Senator Barack Obama, was busy capturing the imagination of the entire world. Who can forget the poster above which captured the essence of his campaign. Unsurprisingly, Senator Obama was elected President of the US by a resounding majority, trouncing his opponent, Senator John McCain by a huge margin. President Obama’s campaign slogan was simply “Yes we can” and many will argue that since coming to office he has achieved a number of good things for the US and the world in general.

However, something is missing from Obama, the President and there are many opinions as to what the missing ingredient is. Is it his lack fighting spirit, which many Presidents before him seem to posses? Is it failure to perhaps convert his energetic rhetoric of the campaign into “visible” action? I put the term visible in inverted comma’s because although he may have done a lot since comig into office, he has shied away from blowing his own trumpet. Could it be that even as President, he continues to preach just like he was during his election campaign, instead just simply connecting emotionally with the people? Perhaps it is all of the above.

What I know for sure is that President Obama has failed to make me stop dead in my track to listen to what he has to say, like Senator Obama used to. President Obama has failed to capture my imagination, like Senator Obama did. Like him or not, one of the things that our President, Zuma seems to do very well, is connect emotionally with his audience by telling stories and laughing (sometimes at himself). Perhaps President Obama needs to tell more stories about his Presidency and laugh with his audience more. President Obama needs to stop being a Senator running for election and start being a President who runs the most powerful country in the world.

26 October, 2010

Export-Led Economic Growth for SA



In the late 1990’s the government of Namibia embarked on a strategy to stimulate economic growth through the export of processed goods. In fact, the Namibian government went further by signing into law the Economic Processing Zone Act of 1995. At the heart of this law was an attempt by the government of Namibia to give priority to certain sectors of the economy, specifically manufacturing where companies in the business of processing finished goods are incentivised to produce and export more of their goods. The incentives ranged from corporate tax holiday, to free repatriation of profits by companies operating in the Export Processing Zone (EPZ). The latter incentive was aimed at attracting foreign investment into Namibia. However, the ultimate aim of setting up the EPZ was to help create at least 25,000 jobs for Namibian citizens. Almost fifteens years down the line, the EPZ strategy seems to have failed to deliver on the job-creation goal, with less than 1000 jobs created by companies operating within the EPZ. There are a number of reasons why the Namibian EPZ experience has proved less successful than originally planned. Firstly, legislation and incentives alone clearly have not been enough to ensure that exports really drive economic growth.

SA must learn from Namibia
Other factors lacking in Nambia’s EPZ plan were government’s failure to invest in the improvement of its infrastructure to make it easier for businesses in the EPZ to carryout business. The country’s geography and climate, which is mostly desert and hot may have had a contributing factor. Another perhaps key factor missing in Namibian EPZ strategy was a focus on investment in the education and development of skills necessary to drive the business within the EPZ. All these factors on their own or together may have conspired to put paid to Namibia’s attempt to use exports as a mechanism to grow its economy. South Africa’s exports are still lead largely by resources such as gold, platinum and coal. Exports of processed manufactured goods make up a very small percentage of total exports and have a small impact on the economy of South Africa. Taking lessons from the Namibian experience, SA desperately needs to develop a strategy to grow is exports of manufactured goods in order create more jobs and earn valuable foreign currency.

20 October, 2010

SA must use exports to arrest unemployment!

Our economy, as measured by GDP, is showing a healthy growth. In fact, the economy has shown positive growth since the third quarter of 2009 and recent economic data from Stats SA show that the economy grew by 3.2% in the second quarter of this year. Yet, this growth does not seem to have a positive impact on the employment figures, indeed for the year to end June 2010, the unemployment rate in South Africa increased by 1.7% to the current figure of 25.3%. The formal sector, which excludes the agricultural sector and by far the largest employment sector of the economy has shed 5.5% of its workforce over the one year period ending Jun 2010.

In my view, in order for our economy to grow at a rate where more jobs are created than are being lost, the economy needs to be export driven. The economy of China and those of other Asian countries have experienced accelerated growth based mainly on a robust export strategy. But focusing on exports, presumes that South Africa has something of value which the world wants. Yes, we may export a lot of primary, unprocessed goods but in order to make significant revenues from exports, we would need to export more of the secondary and tertiary goods. What South Africa needs is one or more major big ideas, to tip the scales in the rights direction. The Asian countries found the big ideas in the development and manufacturing of technical equipment and motor vehicles. Imagine if South Africa could develop and manufacture a low-cost vehicle which can be exported to other third world countries. SA needs to grow the value of its exports if the unemployment rate is to be arrested. 

12 October, 2010

Never Forget the World Cup



It's a picture like this, which I took while in Cape Town at the V&A Waterfront which reminds one of the FIFA World Cup that was. What an event! By all accounts, South Africa will repeat the benefits of this sporting spectacle for many many years to come. The tourism statistical figures clearly show that the hospitality industry certainly reaped rewards during the Jun/Jul period of the World Cup. In the long term, those involved in selling South Africa as a tourism destination of choice, hope that the World Cup will have exposed the country to a much broader travelling audience to help grow foreign travel to our shores. To date, South Africa has managed to attract just below 10 million international visitors on an annual basis. Given the World Cup, estimates are that the 10 million magical barrier will be broken in 2010. But will this growth in foreign visitors be sustainable beyond 2010? 

29 August, 2010

Signs of Some World Cup Benefits




The FIFA World Cup has come and gone and it now lives only in memory, except perhaps for the many World Cup-related installations and advertising material that remain in place and continue to serve as a reminder of the event that was. Questions are being asked about the economic impact of this football spectacle and slowly answers are beginning to emerge. Recently, STATS-SA released tourist accommodation figures for the period ending June 2010.

According to STATS-SA,"total income for the accommodation industry for the second quarter of 2010 increased by 17,8% compared with the second quarter of 2009. Total income for the accommodation industry in June 2010 increased by 55,3% compared with June 2009." Interestingly, income from accommodation alone in June 2010 increased by 81,7% compared with June 2009. This was largely due to an increase of 21.8% in the average room night stay, which means that rates were higher in June of 2010 compared to June of 2009. In the period leading up to the World Cup, there was a general perception that the hospitality industry had hiked its accommodation prices in order to take advantage of the expected influx of international visitors and the above figures confirm that the price hikes were in fact a reality. The accommodation industry certainly drew benefits from the FIFA World Cup and perhaps in time figures from STATS-SA may indicate the extent to which other sectors of the SA economy have benefited from the World Cup.


26 April, 2010

Are we ready to welcome the world?



Transportation is what is on my mind at this time and I suppose it’s largely due to my concern about how well our transportation system will hold up during the FIFA World Cup!

Air Travel
In general, I have confidence in our aviation industry and I think people flying in and out of our country through the various international airports over the period of the World Cup are destined to have a generally pleasant experience. This is thanks in large part to the long-term planning approach that has been adopted by the Airport Company of South Africa (ACSA), the people who manage all airports (international and domestic) in South Africa. In the past few years, we’ve seen how ACSA has transformed our airports through the company’s multi-billion Rand infrastructure investment programme aimed at upgrading existing airports and building the completely new King Shaka airport in Durban, at a cost of R7 billion. I’m however less confident in our domestic airports in the small cities of Polokwane, Port Elizabeth and Bloemfontein, where the staff are not used to dealing with large volumes of passengers and cargo, not to mention the adequacy of the ground infrastructure in those airports. It is my that staff in these small airports have been sufficiently trained, not only to put up a friendly welcoming face but to also do their jobs well.

Road Transport
Road transportation is by far my biggest concern when it comes to the World Cup. To be sure, a lot of work has gone into transforming our roads both to increase the traffic-carrying capacity as well as to enhance traffic flow on existing roads however, with some of the road works still continuing, we have yet to see real improvements in the levels of traffic congestion. Indeed, SANRAL, the government agency responsible for managing our roads has announced that work on our roads will not be completed before the World Cup and that the construction sites will simply be shut down during the period of the tournament. Also of concern to me is that so far we’ve seen little evidence of coordinated national traffic policing plan aimed at  ensuring smooth traffic flows throughout the period of the World Cup. By now, we ought to be seeing would be visible signs of government’s plan unfolding, with drills and dry runs taking place throughout the country, especially in the host cities. Imagine for a moment that the traffic lights have gone out on major roads near the airports, hotels and stadia during a World Cup match-day. Of greater disappointment to me however, is that the ambitious Joburg bus rapid transport system, Rea Vaya, has been anything but a success. Poor planning has prevented the Rea Vaya project from being as rapid as it was intended to be, largely due to the buses not having completely dedicated lanes on some parts of their routes. One can only hope that those in charge of planning for Cape Town’s own bus rapid system have learnt valuable lessons from the blunders of Joburg’s Rea Vaya.

In the meantime, let's prepare to present a world-class country to the rest of the world.

13 April, 2010

Zuma must convince the world to de-nuke!



Ahead of the start of the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington D.C, US President Barack Obama congratulated South Africa for showing leadership in being the first country to completely abandon its nuclear bomb programme. Watching on as President Obama was painting a picture of South Africa as a moral leader when it comes nuclear disarmament, was our own President Zuma. I could not help but notice that President Zuma seemed to have a wry smile on his face and in my own mind I began to wonder whether the smile meant that President Zuma was simply busking in the glory being bestowed on South Africa, or was it that President Zuma was secretly thinking, well what about you President Obama, when will the USA completely abandon its nuclear bomb programme? We’ll never really know what was on President Zuma’s mind at that point in time however, considering that at the height of South Africa’s nuclear arms programme (under the auspices of the Atomic Energy Corporation), the country could at most assemble only 6 nuclear warheads, President Obama’s praise of South Africa was at best, symbolic and at worst, exaggerated South Africa’s nuclear power.

The world needs to get rid of threat of war
While I agree with the notion of South Africa dismantling its nuclear bomb arsenal (an act ordered by then President FW de Klerk which then came into effect in 1991 when South Africa signed a disarmament treaty with the International Atomic Energy Agency) I wonder about the wisdom of having done so when many countries such as the US continued to hold large arsenals of nuclear warheads. Indeed, recently the US and Russia signed an agreement where both countries agreed to reduce their nuclear bomb arsenals to 1,500 each. Many would argue that the age of nuclear or indeed atomic warfare is behind us, however as long as there are countries that continue to develop and hold nuclear bomb arsenals, the possibility of nuclear war remains, remote as this possibility may be. In my opinion, President Zuma ought to take advantage of the higher moral ground bestowed upon him by President Obama and use this to push for nuclear disarmament by all countries currently harbouring an arsenal. With the US now effectively the only global super power, there remains no threat large enough to warrant the use of a nuclear bomb. To be sure, the world needs more peace but, with some countries continuing to hold on to nuclear bomb arsenals, world peace can never really be completely assured, and this is the argument President Zuma could use in favour of nuclear disarmament.

04 April, 2010

Government must bet on rail transport



In recent times drivers on South African roads have had to learn the skill of avoiding hazards in the form of potholes in the roads where the tar has simply disintegrated. Those familiar with the roads riddled with potholes usually get to their destinations without much drama. However, some unlucky soles have found themselves driving over and into potholes only to cause serious damage to their vehicles. Most insurance policies were not written to accommodate damage from potholes specifically and as such some motorists have tried to claim from their insurance for pothole damage, without success. In my view, the insurance companies ought to consider adjusting their policy documents to accommodate damage from potholes on the one hand and on the other hand, government and the city councils must simply improve their budgeting regarding the repairing of potholes. There are many theories concerning the causes of potholes on South African roads. One theory is simple lack of proper routine maintenance combined with the heavy rainy weather in some parts of the country, preventing maintenance work. Another theory is the increased traffic on the South African roads, specifically traffic of heavy vehicles carrying all sorts of goods. Perhaps a combination of these theories is the real cause for the damage to our roads.

Towards the end of last year, Berkshire Hathaway an investment company run by billionaire investor Warren Buffet announced that it would acquire the remaining stake it does not already own in freight rail operator, Burlington Northern. It is estimated that 40% of all freight in the US is transported via rail and Burlington which has a large share of the rail market, transports mainly, coal, grain and canned beverages. Berkshire Hathaway has folked out a staggering US$26 billion to make Burlington a wholly-owned subsidiary, an invest which many see as Buffet’s great faith in the freight rail business. When asked in an interview on one of the business news channels as to why he made the investment, Buffet said he believed that as the US population grows demand for goods would grow and as demand for goods grows, freight volumes would also grow accordingly. By some estimates, of all the freight and cargo transported across South Africa, 60% is transported by roads with the remainder split between rail, air and sea. South Africa has a fairly robust rail network system and in my opinion, there should be no reason why more of the freight is not transported by rail. The reality however is that South Africa’s only freight rail operator, Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) has not been employing new rolling stock at a fast enough rate to meet the freight transportation demands of the country.

Rail is efficient form of transportation
In s statement released to announce the Burlington acquisition, Berkshire Hathaway pointed out that, “American railroads move 40 percent of our nation’s freight, but account for just 2.2 percent of all transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions.” So not only does rail reduce the pressure on roads because of less traffic from heavy vehicles but rails seems be an environmentally friendly transportation alternative for transporting goods. Government, through the department of Transport must demonstrate its political will and put pressure on Transnet to increase its capacity to carry freight as a matter of urgency. 

28 March, 2010

Government's new approach on HIV/AIDS

On 15 April 2010, the Government of President Zuma under the auspices of the Department of Health will launch a nation-wide HIV Counselling and Testing (HCT) campaign. This will arguably be the most ambitious HIV/AIDS initiative in Southern Africa, if not on the African Continent. After years of debate under the government of President Zuma regarding how best to deal with the HIV/AIDS problem, it is encouraging that government is now taking a clear stand on dealing with this problem. The details of the HCT programme will be unveiled in April, but what we know so far is that the campaign will target South Africans aged 12 years and older. 

Finding a Cure 
At the heart of any effort to alleviate the HIV/AIDS programme is the extent to which the HCT will deal with the issue of prevention against infection as well as the treatment of those who are already infected. It is my hope that the details of the HCT reveal a plan that deal with both prevention and treatment as opposed to one versus the other. Unfortunately as far as HIV/AIDS is concerned we can not really talk of a cure as none exists at this stage. Indeed now that a plan will soon be in place to deal with the immediate problem of HIV/AIDS in our society, the debate about what causes AIDS must still continue with vigor and perhaps in time the Department of Health will see it fit to invest money in the research required to discover and development of a cure for AIDS and an antidote against the Human Immuno Virus.

24 March, 2010

Finance Minister blows hot on coal!



In an article published on government’s official online publication, "Buanews", Minister of Finance, Pravin Gordhan makes a very strong case as to why coal remains the best way for Eskom to generate electricity. Essentially, Minister Gordhan uses the article to make a case for Eskom to continue with plans to build the Medupi coal power station at a cost of US$3 Billion. The Minister points out that the demand for electricity has simply outstripped Eskom’s capacity to meet that demand and coal remains the only solution to closing this gap, in the immediate term. While Minister Gordhan acknowledges that there’s no denying coal’s harmfulness to the environment, he fails to make a critical point, which is that in pursuing the coal solution to South Africa’s electricity problem, measures must be put in place to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions from such power stations as Medupi. 

Carbon Capture and Storage

20 March, 2010

Proactive co-operation between Military and Police



An earlier post on this blog, regarding SA Army engineers involved in the building of bridges in poor communities in the Eastern Cape for civilian use, set me off thinking of another perhaps unrelated idea. The idea is simple, it involves some form of co-operation between the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) and the SA Police Services (SAPS). South Africa is a country that is not at war, certainly not with any of its neighbours, it is therefore not surprising that the well-trained men and women of the SANDF find themselves with little to do. My guess is that, currently the SANDF is largely involved in patrolling our borders, in intelligence gathering as well as in counter intelligence initiatives. Such activities leave the SANDF with plenty of resource capacity, the kind of capacity which makes it possible for the Army engineers to embark on the building of much needed bridges for civilian use. Indeed, it is my hope that the SANDF extends its services to more civilians across our  country.

A challenged SAPS
On the other hand, the SAPS is under a huge strain as a result of the war it is waging against rampant crime. According to nationmaster (a statistics gathering organization) South Africa has one of the highest murder rates in the world, only behind countries such as India, Russia and Colombia but ahead of Mexico, a country which has been in the news lately for some violent drug related deaths. The global average of police personnel per 1000 members of a population is 3 and South Africa is not that far behind with 2.7 police personnel per 1000 members of the population. While this number in itself is encouraging, a recent study commissioned by head of the SAPS, General Bheki Cele, indicates that our police stations are in a real mess with station commanders who do not have the requisite skills to run such institutions. Chief among the areas where the police stations seem to be performing poorly is case investigations. How many times have we read of missing dockets at police stations, and as we know, without a docket the case may as well not exist. No doubt therefore that the SAPS is seriously challenged and in need of a major overhaul.

Proactive co-operation to enhance skills 

19 March, 2010

Is the World Cup really coming?




I must say that having had the opportunity to visit Germany in February of 2006, just five months before the start of the 2006 event in that country, I'm rather disappointed at the low levels of interest which both the sponsors and FIFA have generated around the even in South Africa. However, the real measure of the World Cup will be the number of tickets sold and the television audience figures attained both in South Africa and around the world. I have no doubt in my mind that despite the low levels of hype and media activity, FIFA will make a profit from this event and soccer fans will come to SA in large numbers to the benefit of our economy. The jury is still out as to the number of foreign visitors who will enter our shores, with the initial figure of 450,000 having been revised down to around 350,000 visitors. 

16 March, 2010

Bravo to the SA Army, bravo!


A huge compliments must be paid to the SA Army Engineers who have embarked on a project help the improve the lives of the ordinary citizens in the Eastern Cape. This is what I call an ingenious way of making good use of downtime. Read more on this heartwarming story on Defence Web


15 March, 2010

Simple policing just not enough!



The conflicts and massacres in Somalia, Bosnia and Rwanda reached boiling point round about the same time that South Africa was in the home-straight in the country’s race towards its first democratic elections on 1994. Of the three conflicts, Rwanda was by far the worst, based purely on the sheer number of deaths, estimated to be over 800 thousand after the dust had settled, although some argue that the true statistics will never be known. The UN later declared the conflicts in Bosnia and Rwanda as genocide and crimes against humanity. What is striking about the three conflicts, is that the initial acts of violence were perpetrated by forces internal to those countries, forces which pit one ethnic group against the other. In each of these three cases, the conflict symbolized a country at war with itself. Many countries around the world invest al lot of resources in the establishment and maintenance of armed forces, primarily to protect against an external threat. South Africa is no exception, with more government expenditure allocated towards the Army, Nany and Air Force, combined, than to the SA Police Services (SAPS).


A heavy-handed approach
In my opinion, South Africa is now facing what I deem an internal threat to our national security, and this threat is simply CRIME. In the examples of Somalia, Bosnia and  Rwanda, the United Nations and the world in general failed to intervene until extensive damage had been inflicted and thousands of lives were lost. It is my fear that unless our government acts swiftly, as the crime rate continues to escalate in South Africa, government may soon find itself fighting an internal all-out war against the criminals. Many would argue that it is the task of the SA Police Services (SAPS) to deal with  this internal threat called crime, this argument remains valid for as long as crime is contained to the minimum and law-and-order in maintained. I my view, it is only a matter of time until crime gets so far out of hand as to cause a real threat to our national security. Enter the armed forces. I think time has come for the armed forces to be beefed up and used side-by-side with the SAPS to help reduce the levels of crime in our society. Somehow I have a feeling that the presence of heavily armed men and women in brown uniform would serve as a better deterrence to criminals than the men and women in blue. Indeed, the last thing we want is a police state, with autocratic rule but time has come for drastic action against crime and criminals. Without sounding too alarmist, death statistics as a result of crime are piling up and we can not wait until we have a situation similar to Somalia, Bosnia or Rwanda before appropriate action is taken by our government, our democracy is far too valuable to take that risk.