Earlier I blogged about what I thought would be big global events to watch in 2012 (see "What will 2012 hold"). This time around I would like to take out a crystal ball and attempt to predict the top 5 things that will happen in the South African social and political landscape in 2012. These are things which may alter the history of our country while others could become mere headlines. So here goes, in no particular order.
President Jacob Zuma will shuffle his cabinet and one or two Premiers will be removed from their positions. The President will do so either to address non-performance or simply to achieve specific political ends.
Following the census 2011, Stats SA will announce that the number of people living in SA is significantly more than the current 2011 mid-year estimate of 50.6 million. The last census in 2001 put SA's population at the time of that census, at 44.8. My guess is that the new figure will come out at approximately 56 million. If this figure is confirmed, this will have a significant impact on how government allocates and distributes resources in order to deliver services to us, the citizens.
The unemployment rate will hit a record 30% by year end. While the economy, as indicated by GDP figures, will continue to grow, this growth will not translate into jobs. There are no major new infrastructure projects planned to start in 2012 and nothing in the horizon suggests that more jobs will be created, not in the public sector, nor in the private sector.
South Africa will be awarded the rights to build the Square Kilometer Array telescope (SKA). The country is among a few bidding to become the location for the SKA. Other major contenders include Australia and New Zealand. If SA gets the nod, this will have both an economic as well as a scientific impact on South Africa. It is expected that the project to construct the SKA will cost in the region of US$1.5 billion, that would mean sigfinficant foreign in-flows for SA.
"Secrecy Act"
"Secrecy Act"
The Constitutional Court, if opposition parties in Parliament pursue this route, will rule the recently promulgated Secrecy Act un-Constitutional. As a result Parliament will be forced to amend the law to fit in with the principle of "public-interest" as enshrined in our Constitution.
Now let's see how 2012 unfolds.
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